De OECD over IJsland
De OECD, dat is dus de gezaghebbende club van 26 meest geindustrialiseerde landen, met hoofdzetel in Parijs. Ze zijn een van de belangrijkste motoren geweest achter het neoliberale beleid van deregulering en privatisering en claimen zeer deskundig te zijn op economisch gebied. Daarom maken ze ook regelmatig geactualiseerde landenstudies waarin de stand van de economie in het land geanalyseerd wordt, en advies gegeven wordt over beleidsmaatregelen.
Over IJsland schreven ze het volgende:
Economic Survey of Iceland 2006
Published on 9 August 2006
Chapter 1: Policy challenges in sustaining improved economic performance
“(…) Iceland’s growth performance has considerably improved since the mid-1990s thanks to the widespread implementation of structural reforms. Financial- market liberalisation and privatisation, for example, have fostered entrepreneurship and investment. As a result, part of the previous relative decline in per capita GDP has been reversed over the past decade, and the country’s standard of living has remained among the highest in the OECD area. However growth has been volatile and accompanied by recurrent sizeable economic imbalances and tensions, only partly reflecting major aluminium-related investment projects. Consequently, a key challenge for policy is to enhance macroeconomic stability by ensuring an orderly unwinding of current imbalances and inflation pressures and avoiding their re-emergence in the future.(…)” (uit: OECD ‘Economic Survey of Iceland’ 2006)
Chapter 4: Building on the success of financial liberalization
met daarin oa:
“(..) Recently concerns have been expressed about the stability of the financial system;
however the guarded assessment of financial supervisors and ratings agencies is that the system is broadly sound. A significant part of the credit for the vitality of the financial sector probably lies with government policy – in particular, the opening of the sector to international markets and the privatisation of the banks. Market liberalisation has been successful so far and should continue.(…)”
In het vervolg voor 2008 (Economic Survey of Iceland, 2008 van februari 2008 )
wordt nog geconstateerd dat:
“The Icelandic economy is prosperous and flexible. With its per-capita income growing at double the OECD rate since the mid-1990s, it is now the fifth-highest among member countries and more than a quarter above the OECD average. This impressive performance is attributable to extensive structural reforms that deregulated and opened up the economy, thereby unleashing entrepreneurial dynamism, as evidenced by an aggressive expansion of Icelandic companies abroad. (…)”
Maar de kredietcrisis is dan al op stoom aan het komen, en enig naderend onheil wordt al wel gesignaleerd.
Waarop de vraag volgt:
“What needs to be done in the area of monetary policy?
Antwoord: “So far, Iceland’s financial institutions have weathered the storm well, although increased risk aversion has led to higher borrowing cost for Icelandic banks. While their rapid expansion has raised concerns about financial stability, supervisory and rating agencies consider that the financial system is broadly sound. Stress tests suggest that banks have adequate capital to withstand large credit and market shocks. However, these scenarios do not account for the second- round effects of such shocks. Hence, the authorities should continue efforts aimed at improving the risk assessment and supervision of the financial system”.
Geruststellend dat dit soort experts aan de basis van het economisch beleid staan?